April 28, 2025

Midday Market Roundup for Monday, April 28, 2025

Good afternoon. Here are the top four global financial and economic topics shaping markets at midday, Monday, April 28, 2025:

1. Global Recession Risks Surge on US Tariff Shockwaves

A new Reuters poll of nearly 50 economists reveals a concerning trend: the risk of a global recession has surged, with three-quarters of respondents revising their 2025 global growth forecasts downwards. The median forecast now stands at 2.7%, a significant drop from the 3.0% predicted in January. The primary culprit? US President Donald Trump’s far-reaching tariffs, including a 10% universal duty and a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports. These measures have sent shockwaves through financial markets, wiping out trillions in stock market value and shaking confidence in US assets and the dollar. While the most severe tariffs have been put on hold for most trading partners, the lingering uncertainty about future trade policy is casting a shadow over companies' planning and is expected to drag on global growth for the remainder of the year (US News/Reuters).

2. Markets Volatile as Investors Brace for Earnings and Economic Data

Stock futures and global equity markets are in a state of flux as investors brace themselves for a packed week of corporate earnings and key economic reports. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were holding steady this morning, following a month of significant volatility driven by tariff headlines and cautious corporate guidance. Over 180 S&P 500 companies, including tech giants like Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft, are set to report earnings this week. While 73% of companies have surpassed Q1 forecasts, the forward guidance has taken a more cautious tone as firms adapt to the new tariff environment. The S&P 500 is down 1.5% for April, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 4.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite has managed a modest gain (CNBC; Investopedia).

3. Asian and European Markets Edge Higher on Hope for Trade Progress

Asian shares increased today as investors looked for signs of progress in US trade negotiations and awaited further clarity on tariff policy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and India’s Nifty 50 posted gains, while European stocks also advanced, with the STOXX Europe 600 rising on hopes for more trade deal progress. Despite the optimism, uncertainty remains high, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defending the administration’s “strategic uncertainty” approach to tariffs. The dollar traded in a narrow range, and oil prices edged up as investors weighed the prospects for a U.S.-China agreement (US News/AP; MarketScreener).

4. Economic Data in Focus as Trump Reaches 100 Days in Office

This week features many important US economic releases, including first-quarter GDP, core PCE inflation, ISM, and PMI data. The labor market is expected to slow down, with job openings and payroll growth likely to have softened in April. Consumer confidence is also forecast to dip, reflecting growing anxiety about tariffs and inflation. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index and the government’s monthly employment report are the most closely watched indicators. Economists warn that unless tariffs are reversed or fiscal stimulus is enacted, the US and global economies could face further downside risks (US News; S&P Global).

Sources

Disclosure:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. The content is not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Readers should consult with qualified financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decisions.

The views and opinions expressed are based on sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections, which may change without notice.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The strategies or investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors.

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Midday Market Roundup for Monday, April 28, 2025

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