The PULSE: October 25, 2024, the global economic and market landscape remains mixed.

1. Eurozone: The Eurozone’s growth outlook remains muted, with a forecasted GDP increase of just 0.8% in 2024. Germany, a key driver of the region's economy, is projected to stagnate due to persistent struggles in manufacturing and low demand, which weigh on the broader Eurozone economy. Inflation is slowing gradually, though it will likely remain above target into next year, prompting the European Central Bank to maintain restrictive monetary policies with the potential for further rate cuts deferred until 2025 (FXEmpire, IMF).

2. China: China’s growth outlook has been revised downward to 4.8% for 2024, driven by persistent issues in the property sector and a cautious consumer environment. Exports have provided some support, yet the overall economic resilience remains fragile. The IMF warns that these domestic challenges and limited fiscal support could keep China’s economy vulnerable in the coming year (IMF, Deloitte).

3. United States: The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the IMF upgrading its growth forecast to 2.8% for 2024. This strength is fueled by robust consumer spending and rising wages, with a potential “soft landing” as inflation moderates. The Federal Reserve has signaled it may initiate gradual rate cuts starting in late 2024 to sustain growth, though tight monetary conditions could still pose risks if inflationary pressures re-emerge (IMF, Allianz).

4. Boeing: Boeing continues encountering challenges in its commercial aircraft division due to supply chain disruptions, impacting production rates. However, demand in the aerospace sector remains high, especially for defense contracts, which may partially offset the commercial delays in the coming quarters (Deloitte).

5. IMF and Global Inflation: The IMF projects global growth at 3.2% in 2024, consistent with its previous forecast. Inflation is expected to decrease globally, though certain regions, especially those experiencing rapid wage growth, may see prolonged inflation pressures. Risks like geopolitical tensions, potential trade conflicts, and high commodity prices could create uncertainties and impact inflation and growth projections in 2025 and beyond (IMF, Allianz).

Sources:

• IMF World Economic Outlook
• FXEmpire Economic Forecast
• Deloitte Global Economic Insights
• Allianz Economic Outlook