On January 9, 2025, global economic indicators and market movements reflected a complex interplay of factors influencing growth and investor sentiment.
Global Economic Outlook
The United Nations released its "World Economic Situation and Prospects" report, projecting a steady global economic growth rate of 2.8% for 2025, mirroring 2024's performance but remaining below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%. This outlook is tempered by anticipated slower expansions in major economies:
- United States: Growth is expected to decelerate from 2.8% to 1.9%, influenced by potential trade policy shifts under the new administration.
- China: A slight reduction in growth from 4.9% to 4.8% is projected, with challenges including deflationary pressures and trade tensions.
- European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom: These regions are anticipated to experience modest recoveries, though concerns persist regarding fiscal health and political stability.
Developing economies, particularly in South Asia, are poised for robust performance. India's economy is forecasted to grow by 6.6%, contributing to the region's projected GDP growth of 5.7% in 2025. Global inflation is expected to ease from 4% to 3.4%, prompting major central banks to consider lowering interest rates.
Market Movements
On this day, U.S. financial markets, including the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, were closed in observance of a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. This closure had a significant impact on global market movements, as it reduced trading volumes and limited the release of new market information. The bond market operated with reduced hours, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly declining to 4.69%, ending a recent upward trend.
In Europe, equity markets exhibited mixed results:
- FTSE 100 (London): Increased by 0.8%, buoyed by gains in the healthcare and basic materials sectors.
- DAX (Germany): Experienced a marginal decline of 0.1%, reflecting investor caution amid rising bond yields and fiscal concerns.
- CAC 40 (France): Advanced by 0.5%, supported by positive corporate earnings reports.
Asian markets predominantly faced declines:
- Nikkei 225 (Tokyo): Dropped by 0.9%, influenced by concerns over China's economic outlook and regional trade tensions.
- Hang Seng (Hong Kong): Decreased by 0.2% amid investor apprehension regarding potential U.S. trade policies.
- Shanghai Composite Index: Fell by 0.6%, as deflationary signals and trade uncertainties weighed on sentiment.
Currency and Commodity Markets
The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the index rising to 109.17, nearing its highest since November 2022. The British pound experienced significant declines, reflecting concerns over the UK's fiscal health amid rising bond yields. China's yuan stabilized following intervention by the People's Bank of China to support the currency.
In commodities, oil prices saw an uptick due to increased demand driven by cold weather conditions:
- U.S. Crude: Rose by 0.8% to $73.92 per barrel.
- Brent Crude: Increased by 1% to $76.92 per barrel.
Gold prices also edged higher, with spot gold reaching $2,670.09 per ounce, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties.
Key Considerations
Investors closely monitor potential policy shifts under President-elect Donald Trump's administration, remarkably proposed tariffs, and immigration policies, which could influence inflation and global trade dynamics. Additionally, upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, are anticipated to provide further insights into the global economy's health.
January 9, 2025, presented a landscape of cautious optimism tempered by geopolitical uncertainties and evolving economic policies, underscoring the need for vigilant market analysis and strategic investment decisions.
Disclosure Statement
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. The opinions expressed herein are based on current market trends, economic data, and publicly available information as of January 9, 2025, and are subject to change without notice.
The information presented is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Readers should not rely solely on this article for making investment decisions and are encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor or other professional before taking any investment action.
Neither the author nor the publisher assumes any responsibility for loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information contained in this article. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal.
This article may reference third-party sources, which are provided for convenience and informational purposes only. The inclusion of such references does not imply endorsement or approval of their content, accuracy, or conclusions by the author or publisher.
Sources
United Nations global economic growth report
https://www.reuters.com/markets/un-predicts-world-economic-growth-remain-28-2025-2025-01-09/
U.S. financial markets closure for National Day of Mourning
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-01-09-2025-01209e50
European and Asian market updates
https://apnews.com/article/67aa40aec864309feac4ded19fbccfc6
Currency and commodity markets analysis
https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-01-09/
European markets overview
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2025-01-09/
Recent Articles
Let's talk about your future.
Connect with a local Duncan Williams Asset Management advisor
5350 Poplar Ave.
Suite 600
Memphis, TN 38119
