Midday Market Roundup for Thursday, April 17, 2025

Good afternoon. Here are the top four global financial and economic topics shaping markets at midday on April 17, 2025:

1. Global Growth Forecasts Cut Amid Escalating Trade War

Fitch Ratings has made a significant revision to its world growth forecast, attributing the drastic change to the intense escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. The agency's latest projection for world growth in 2025 is a worrying figure, falling below 2%—the lowest since 2009, excluding the pandemic. The U.S. annual growth is expected to decelerate to a mere 0.4% by the fourth quarter, while China’s growth is forecast to dip below 4%. Fitch highlights that the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariff hikes have had a more severe impact than anticipated, with the effective U.S. tariff rate on China now exceeding 100%. These developments are fueling global policy uncertainty, dampening business investment, and elevating inflation risks for American households (Fitch Ratings via The Tribune India)4.

2. Wall Street Volatile as Tech and Trade Dominate

U.S. stock markets saw choppy trading today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped as much as 700 points in early trading after President Trump called for removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, criticizing him for not cutting rates fast enough. Technology shares remained under pressure after Nvidia announced a $5.5 billion loss due to new export restrictions on AI chips to China, while AMD warned of an $800 million hit. Investors are closely watching ongoing U.S.-Japan tariff talks, which could significantly impact the cost of goods and services, and the impact of trade policy on corporate earnings and economic outlook (CNN Business5, The Wall Street Journal8).

3. Central Banks Move Toward Rate Cuts

The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points today, marking its sixth consecutive cut as policymakers respond to trade-driven uncertainty and slowing inflation. Markets anticipate further easing from the Bank of Canada and Korea in the coming weeks. The euro has hit multi-year highs against the U.S. dollar, adding pressure on European exporters (Action Forex6, S&P Global9).

4. China and U.S. Economic Data in Focus

China is set to announce its benchmark lending rates on Monday, with markets anticipating additional monetary easing to counteract the effects of U.S. tariffs. First-quarter GDP and industrial production data from China are also due, with analysts expecting signs of slowing momentum. In the U.S., retail sales and industrial production data released this week will provide further insight into the health of the American consumer and manufacturing sector (Reuters2, S&P Global9).

Sources:

• Fitch Ratings via The Tribune India: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/business/fitch-ratings-lowers-world-growth-forecast-due-to-escalation-in-global-trade-war/
• Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/global-markets-themes-graphic-2025-04-17/
• CNN Business: https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/investing/us-stock-market/index.html
• The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-17-25
• Action Forex: https://www.actionforex.com/contributors/fundamental-analysis/593991-ecb-april-meeting-preview-expected-rate-cuts-and-market-impact/
• S&P Global: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/week-ahead-economic-preview-week-of-14-april-2025.html

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